An astonishingly tragic year for air travel in Southeast Asia turned worse Sunday when an AirAsia plane carrying 162 people disappeared over stormy Indonesian waters, with no word on its fate despite several hours of searching by air and sea.
JAKARTA, Indonesia -- An astonishingly tragic year for air travel in Southeast Asia turned worse Sunday when an AirAsia plane carrying 162 people disappeared over stormy Indonesian waters, with no word on its fate despite several hours of searching by air and sea.
AirAsia Flight 8501 vanished in airspace thick with dense storm clouds on its way from Surabaya, Indonesia, to Singapore. Searchers had to fight against heavy rain.
The Malaysia-based carrier's loss comes on top of the still-unexplained disappearance of Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 in March and the downing of Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 in July over Ukraine.
At the Surabaya airport, shocked family members pored over the plane's manifest, crying and embracing. Nias Adityas, a housewife from Surabaya, was overcome with grief when she found the name of her husband, Nanang Priowidodo, on the list.
The 43-year-old tour agent had been taking a family of four on a trip to Singapore, Malaysia and Indonesia's Lombok island, and had been happy to get the work.
"He just told me, 'Praise God, this new year brings a lot of good fortune,'" Adityas recalled, holding her grandson tight while weeping uncontrollably. "He apologized because he could not join us for the new year celebration."
Nearly all the passengers and crew are Indonesians, who are frequent visitors to Singapore, particularly on holidays.
The Airbus A320 took off Sunday morning from Indonesia's second-largest city and was about halfway to Singapore when it vanished from radar. The jet had been airborne for about 42 minutes.
Djoko Murjatmodjo, Indonesia's acting director general of transportation, said there was no distress signal from the twin-engine, single-aisle plane.
The last communication between the cockpit and air traffic control was at 6:13 a.m. (23:13 GMT Saturday), when one of the pilots "asked to avoid clouds by turning left and going higher to 34,000 feet (10,360 meters)," Murjatmodjo said. It was last seen on radar at 6:16 a.m. and was gone a minute later, he told reporters.
Indonesia, Singapore and Malaysia launched a search-and-rescue operation near Belitung island in the Java Sea, the area where the jetliner lost contact with the ground.
The air search was suspended Sunday evening and was to resume Monday morning, said Achmad Toha of Indonesia's search-and-rescue agency. Some ships continued searching overnight, he said.
AirAsia group CEO Tony Fernandes flew to Surabaya and told a news conference that the focus should be on the search and the families rather than the cause of the incident.
"We have no idea at the moment what went wrong," said Fernandes, a Malaysian businessman who founded the low-cost carrier in 2001. "Let's not speculate at the moment."
Malaysia-based AirAsia has a good safety record and had never lost a plane before.
"This is my worst nightmare," Fernandes tweeted.
But Malaysia itself has already endured a catastrophic year, with 239 people still missing from Flight 370 and all 298 people aboard Flight 17 killed when it was shot down over rebel-held territory in Ukraine.
AirAsia said Flight 8501 was on its submitted flight plan but had requested a change due to weather.
Sunardi, a forecaster at Indonesia's Meteorology and Geophysics Agency, said dense storm clouds were detected up to 13,400 meters (44,000 feet) in the area at the time.
"There could have been turbulence, lightning and vertical as well as horizontal strong winds within such clouds," said Sunardi, who like many Indonesians uses only one name.
The plane had an Indonesian captain and a French co-pilot, five cabin crew members and 155 passengers, including 16 children and one infant, the airline said in a statement. Among the passengers were three South Koreans, a Malaysian, a British national and his 2-year-old Singaporean daughter. The rest were Indonesians.
AirAsia said the captain has a total of 6,100 flying hours, but Fernandes later said the number is more than 20,000. The first officer has 2,275 flying hours.
At Surabaya airport, dozens of relatives sat in a room waiting for news, many of them talking on mobile phones and crying. Some looked dazed.
Dimas, who goes by one name, said his wife, 30-year-old Ratri Sri Andriani, had been on the flight to lead a group of 25 Indonesian tourists on a trip to Singapore and Malaysia. He was holding out hope that the plane had made an emergency landing.
"We can just pray and hope that all those aboard are safe," said Dimas, who was surrounded by Ratri's parents and friends at the airport crisis center. "We are worried, of course, but we have to surrender to her fate."
Indonesia's search-and-rescue head, Bambang Soelistyo, said his agency would search Monday with 12 ships and three helicopters, along with five military aircraft and a number of warships.
Malaysia and Singapore each planned to deploy one C-130 plane and three ships. Australia will also help, he added.
The missing aircraft was delivered to AirAsia in October 2008, and the plane had accumulated about 23,000 flight hours during some 13,600 flights, Airbus said in a statement.
The aircraft had last undergone scheduled maintenance on Nov. 16, according to AirAsia.
The airline, which has dominated cheap travel in Southeast Asia for years, flies short routes of just a few hours, connecting the region's large cities. Recently, it has tried to expand into long-distance flying through its sister airline AirAsia X.
Fernandes, who is the face of AirAsia and an active Twitter user, stirred controversy earlier this year after incorrectly tweeting that Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 had landed safely.
William Waldock, an expert on air crash search and rescue with Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University in Prescott, Arizona, cautioned against drawing comparisons to the disappearance of Flight 370.
The circumstances bode well for finding Flight 8501 since the intended flight time was less than two hours, and there is a known position where the plane disappeared, he said.
The Airbus A320 is a workhorse of modern aviation. Similar to the Boeing 737, it is used to connect cities anywhere from one to five hours apart. There are currently 3,606 A320s in operation worldwide, according to Airbus.
The A320 family of jets, which includes the A319 and A321, has a good safety record, with just 0.14 fatal accidents per million takeoffs, according to a safety study published by Boeing in August.
Flight 8501 disappeared while at its cruising altitude, which is usually the safest part of a trip. Just 10 percent of fatal crashes from 2004 to 2013 occurred while a plane was in that stage of flight, according to the August Boeing safety report.
In 2007, an Indonesia-owned Adam Air plane carrying 102 people vanished during a domestic flight. Its flight-data and cockpit-voice recorders were retrieved months later, but much of the fuselage remains on the ocean floor.
In 1995, an Indonesian plane operated by Merpati Nusantara Airlines disappeared over open water while flying between islands in the archipelago nation. The 14 crew and passengers were never found.
When passing through bad weather, Airbus jets are able to automatically adjust to wind shears or other weather disruptions. However, weather has played a role in past air disasters that occurred at cruise altitude, including the 2009 Air France Flight 447 crash over the Atlantic Ocean.
KEY DEVELOPMENTS
An AirAsia jet with 162 people on board disappeared Sunday while flying from western Indonesia to Singapore on a scheduled two-hour flight. Here's a look at the key developments:
- Air Asia Flight 8501 took off from Surabaya, Indonesia's second-largest city, at 5:31 a.m. Sunday (2231 GMT Saturday), bound for Singapore.
- The last communication between the pilot and air traffic control was made at 6:13 a.m. (2313 GMT Saturday), when the pilot asked to turn left and climb to 10,360 meters (34,000 feet) to "avoid clouds," according to Djoko Murjatmodjo, Indonesia's acting director general of transportation. Murjatmodjo said there was no distress signal from the cockpit.
- AirAsia said the Airbus A320-200 was on the submitted flight plan route. Murjatmodjo said it is believed to have gone missing somewhere over the Java Sea between Tanjung Pandan on Belitung island and Pontianak, on Indonesia's part of Borneo island.
- Indonesia's Meteorology and Geophysics Agency said dense storm clouds were detected up to 13,400 meters (44,000 feet) in the same area at the time the plane was reported to have lost contact.
- Indonesia, Singapore and Malaysia are involved in the search and rescue operation. Three Indonesian aircraft were dispatched to the area, while Singapore's air force and navy search with two C-130 planes. Indonesia said 200 rescuers were deployed to the east side of Belitung island. The air search was suspended at nightfall and set to resume at 6 a.m. Monday (2300 GMT Sunday).
- Dozens of relatives of people aboard the plane gathered in a room at Surabaya airport to await word about their loved ones. Among the passengers were three South Koreans and one each from Singapore, Malaysia and the United Kingdom. The rest were Indonesians.
- Malaysian businessman Tony Fernandes, AirAsia's chief and the face of the company, tweeted, "This is my worst nightmare." He flew to Surabaya and said at a news conference that the focus should be on the search and the families. "We have no idea at the moment what went wrong. Let's not speculate at the moment," he said.
- In a separate incident later Sunday, an AirAsia flight carrying more than 150 passengers experienced a technical problem about 10 minutes after taking off from Penang, Malaysia, and had to return to the airport, AirAsia said. The flight took off again for the short flight to Langkawi island and safely reached its destination.
QUESTIONS AND ANSWERS
NEW YORK -- Rescue crews are searching Indonesian waters for AirAsia Indonesia Flight 8501, which disappeared Sunday with 162 passengers and crew onboard. The plane was flying from Surabaya, Indonesia's second-largest city, and was about halfway to its destination, Singapore, when it vanished from radar.
Q: WHAT COULD HAVE HAPPENED?
A: It is way too early to know for sure, but here are some options. The plane was in the safest part of flight: Just 10 percent of fatal crashes from 2004 through 2013 occurred while a plane was at cruise elevation, according to a safety study published by Boeing in August.
Passing through bad weather such as severe thunderstorms could have been a factor. Airbus jets have sophisticated computers that automatically adjust to wind shears or other weather disruptions. But weather -- combined with pilot errors -- has played a role in past air disasters that occurred at cruise elevation, including the 2009 Air France Flight 447 crash over the Atlantic Ocean.
Another possibility is some type of catastrophic metal fatigue caused by the cycle of pressurization and depressurization associated with each takeoff and landing cycle. This A320 had had 13,600 takeoffs and landings. Many occurred in humid climate, which speeds corrosion. Still, metal fatigue is unlikely because this plane is only 6 years old.
Finally, there's the possibility of terrorism or a mass murder by the pilot. There's no evidence of either action, but neither can yet be ruled out.
Q: WHAT DID THE PILOTS SAY TO AIR TRAFFIC CONTROLLERS?
A: The last communication between the pilot and air traffic control was at 6:13 a.m. Sunday (6:13 p.m. EST Saturday) when the pilot "asked to avoid clouds by turning left and going higher to 34,000 feet (10,360 meters)." The last radar contact occurred three minutes later. There was no distress call. But pilots are trained to focus first on the emergency at hand and then communicate only when free.
Q: ISN'T THIS THE THIRD MALAYSIAN JET TO CRASH THIS YEAR?
A: Sort of. Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 disappeared with 239 people aboard soon after takeoff from Kuala Lumpur for Beijing on March 8. Its whereabouts and what happened remain one of the biggest mysteries in commercial aviation. Another Malaysia Airlines flight, also a Boeing 777, was shot down over rebel-controlled eastern Ukraine while en route from Amsterdam to Kuala Lumpur on July 17. All 298 people aboard were killed. AirAsia is also based in Malaysia. But Flight 8501 was operated by AirAsia Indonesia, a subsidiary that's 49 percent owned by the Malaysian parent company. So technically, it's an Indonesian airline. But the AirAsia brand is closely tied to the people of Malaysia.
Q: IS THERE A CONNECTION AMONG ALL THESE CRASHES?
A: No. It's just a very unfortunate year for Southeast Asia. But that doesn't stop conspiracy theories from sprouting. Ideas about what happened to Flight 370 -- both logical and bizarre -- keep appearing. The unsolved nature of that disappearance could generate more attention for Flight 8501 and create a new batch of hypotheses.
Q: HOW FAR COULD THE JET HAVE FLOWN?
A: Looking at the flight's paperwork, the plane had more than 18,000 pounds of jet fuel at takeoff, enough to fly about 31/2 hours, according to Phil Derner Jr., the founder of aviation enthusiast website NYCAviation.com and a flight dispatcher for a U.S. airline. He notes that that's less fuel than most flights tend to carry from New York to Florida.
Q: WHAT'S NEXT?
A: Indonesia, Singapore and Malaysia are conducting a search-and-rescue operation near Belitung island in the Java Sea, the plane's last known whereabouts. Assuming that the jet didn't veer far off course, the searchers should find wreckage, which can provide clues about what happened. Investigators will also try to recover the flight data and cockpit voice recorders, which often have the most detailed information about the plane's final moments. Those so-called black boxes have homing beacons that help searchers find them.
Q: IS THE AIRBUS A320 A SAFE JET?
A: The plane is a workhorse of modern aviation. Similar to the Boeing 737, the single-aisle, twin-engine jet is used to connect cities that are between one and five hours apart. Worldwide, 3,606 A320s are in operation, according to Airbus, which also makes nearly identical versions of the plane: The smaller A318 and A319 and the stretched A321. An additional 2,486 of those jets are flying. The A320 family has a good safety record, with just 0.14 fatal accidents per million takeoffs, according to the Boeing safety study.
Q: WHAT ABOUT AIRASIA?
A: Low-cost AirAsia has a strong presence in most of Southeast Asia, and it recently expanded into India. Though most of its flights are just a few hours long, it has tried to expand into long-distance flying through its sister airline AirAsia X. None of its subsidiaries has lost a plane before, and it has a generally good safety record. But it does fly in a part of the world where air travel has expanded faster than the number of qualified pilots, mechanics and air traffic controllers.
Q: WHAT ABOUT FLYING IN INDONESIA?
A: The country has had a bumpy safety record. In 2007, the crash rate and safety standards were so bad that the European Union barred all of Indonesia's airlines from flying into any of its member countries. Than ban was lifted in 2009. But Indonesia's main airline -- fast-growing Lion Air -- is still banned by the EU.
Q: WHAT'S IT LIKE TO FLY THROUGH A THUNDERSTORM AT 34,000 FEET?
A: Planes flying through thunderstorms experience severe turbulence, with the aircraft moving up, down, sideways and rolling. Anything not secured can float around in the cabin, bouncing off things and people. Overhead bins can open up, spilling contents. Airsickness is common.
Q: WHAT DO PILOTS DO TO AVOID THUNDERSTORMS?
A: If at all possible, airline pilots fly around thunderstorms, even if it means going far out of their way. Airliners like the A320 typically are equipped with radar that provides highly accurate weather information. Pilots can see a thunderstorm forming from over 100 miles away, giving them time to plot a way around the storm cluster or to look for gaps to fly through. It's usually not a problem for commercial planes to go 100 or more miles out of the way.
Q: HOW HIGH CAN AN A320 SAFELY FLY? AND WHAT IF IT EXCEEDS THAT LIMIT?
A: The A320 is certified to fly up to 39,000 feet, its maximum altitude before its rate of climb begins to erode. The plane has an absolute flight limit of 42,000 feet. But it can begin to experience problems as low as 37,000 feet, depending on temperature and weight, including fuel, cargo and passengers. The plane's computers should reveal the maximum altitude at which the plane can fly at its current weight and temperature. Planes that exceed their maximum altitude may lose lift, causing an aerodynamic stall. Or they can experience a pressurization blowout, damaging the plane.
Q: HOW DOES A PLANE JUST FALL OFF RADAR?
A: It's still unclear what traffic controllers saw on their screens when the plane disappeared from radar. Authorities haven't said whether they lost only the secondary radar target, which is created by the plane's transponder, or whether the primary radar target, created by energy reflected from the plane, was lost as well. If a plane came apart in the air or suffered a loss of electrical power, the secondary target would be lost, but the primary target is often still visible on radar. But if the plane were descending at rate of over 6,000 feet a minute -- typical of a plane about to crash -- the primary target might be lost as well.
Q: HOW VITAL IS AIR TRAVEL TO THE REGION?
A: For many people, it's the only option. Indonesia is a sprawling archipelago of 250 million people. To get from one island to another, the easiest way is to fly. As the region's economy has grown, so have the number of people flying. The International Air Transport Association recently named Indonesia as one of the world's five fastest-growing air travel markets, predicting an additional 183 million passengers would take to the sky within two decades.
Routes to, from and within the Asia-Pacific region are predicted by the industry trade group to see an extra 1.8 billion annual passengers by 2034, for an overall market size of 2.9 billion. Within two decades, the region is expected to account for 42 percent of global passenger traffic.
The increase in regional airline traffic reflects rapid economic growth. The International Monetary Fund expects the Southeast Asian economies of Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam to grow faster this year and next than anywhere except China, India and sub-Saharan Africa.