President Obama and former Massachusetts Gov. Romney are battling it out for New Hampshire's fiscally conservative, socially liberal voters.
Shira Schoenberg/The RepublicanVolunteers Mary Jo Cannarella (left) and Sonia Prince make phone calls for President Obama's campaign in Nashua, N.H. on July 6, 2012.
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NASHUA, N.H. — On a recent Friday morning, Sonia Prince, a stay-at-home mom from Nashua, sat in President Barack Obama’s campaign office making phone calls.
Prince has supported Obama since 2007. Her biggest concern is the affordability and availability of health insurance, and she supports Obama’s health care overhaul. Prince told one voter about an upcoming phone bank, health care information session and ward meeting. “We’re in the same ward, and I’d love to meet you,” Prince said.
A handful of volunteers – from a high school student to a retiree – joined Prince making phone calls. Next to a life-size cardboard cut-out of Obama, a whiteboard featured a wish list of supplies: clipboards, quarters for parking meters, coffee cups.
Meanwhile, Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney’s campaign was preparing for a “Super Saturday,” in which the campaign opened five offices around New Hampshire and organized volunteers to make phone calls and knock on doors.
New Hampshire, with four electoral votes, may be the smallest of the swing states. But neither presidential campaign is taking it for granted. Obama, who won New Hampshire in 2008, has a stronger ground game, with more offices and more advertising. But Romney, who won New Hampshire’s Republican presidential primary, has visited multiple times and, like Obama, maintains a network of supporters from his 2008 run.
“It’s a very close state, a legitimately purple state, made even more purple by our involvement in the primary,” said Tom Rath, a senior Romney advisor and veteran of New Hampshire politics. “This state knows these candidates as well or better than any state in the country.”
The Obama campaign currently has 10 offices in New Hampshire – seven of which have been open since before the January primary, though Obama faced no major primary challenger. On July 10, the campaign’s online New Hampshire calendar for that day listed phone banks at 15 locations, three team meetings, a canvass, a planning session for a “youth night” and an office opening in Conway. Records show the Obama campaign has spent more than $1.3 million since May advertising on WMUR, the Manchester-based TV station.
New Hampshire House Democratic Leader Terie Norelli, who is on Obama’s state leadership team, said she is optimistic about Obama’s chances. “As I have been traveling around the state, people are very excited about the choice that they have this year,” Norelli said. “People are excited to be out working for President Obama because of the positive things that he has done.” Norelli pointed to Obama’s work on health care reform and keeping student loan interest rates low.
The Romney campaign has eight offices in New Hampshire, including those opened Saturday. The campaign had one office during the primary – which Romney won with 39 percent of the vote – and a continuous presence since then. The campaign has spent just over $300,000 at WMUR since June, according to WMUR’s public file. Romney spent more time in New Hampshire during the primary campaign than almost any other candidate, and has campaigned there several times since – in addition to spending time at his vacation home in Wolfeboro.
“After we lost in 2008, we never stopped working,” Rath said. “We maintained relationships, friendships, built up a very strong statewide organization.” Rath said the campaign has good voter lists, knows how to target resources and is bolstered by frequent visits from Romney.
New Hampshire voters chose Obama over Republican John McCain in 2008, 54 percent to 45 percent. But Republicans in 2010 won a Senate seat, two House seats and control of the state Legislature. The presidential races in 2000 and 2004 were closer, with Democrat John Kerry winning in 2004 and Republican George Bush winning in 2000, both by margins of around 1 percent. Registered voters, as of May, were 28 percent Democrat, 32 percent Republican and 39 percent undeclared. Romney led Obama in the polls before Romney won the Republican nomination, but Obama has since pulled ahead.
“My sense is it’s going to be pretty close,” said Andrew Smith, director of the University of New Hampshire Survey Center.
Fergus Cullen, a former New Hampshire Republican Party chairman, said Romney’s message about Obama’s failure to improve the economy may be challenging to deliver in New Hampshire, where the unemployment rate, 5 percent in May, has remained below the national average. However, Cullen said, Obama owns the national economy in a way he did not in 2008. “The fact that the economy is sputtering nationally is his biggest impediment politically,” Cullen said.
Will Cypher, 67, a Republican from Manchester who works in the floor covering business, said he voted for Obama in 2008, but will support Romney this year. “I think (Obama) took over a situation that was bad and made it worse,” Cypher said. “I was looking for the ‘change’ but the change didn’t happen.” Cypher believes Romney’s business background could help the country.
Democratic National Committeewoman Kathy Sullivan, a former New Hampshire Democratic Party chairwoman, countered that Romney will be hurt by his “flip-flopping” on health care reform – supporting his own health care overhaul in Massachusetts but opposing similar reforms put in place by Obama nationally. She believes Obama’s attacks on Romney’s business experience at Bain Capital will resonate, and Romney’s failure to connect with everyday people will hurt him. “Romney just is taking the wrong positions in terms of where most New Hampshire voters are at,” Sullivan said.
Eating brunch at Riverwalk Café and Coffee House in Nashua, Kirby Foote, 28, a mental health counselor and Democrat, and her friend Tara Richard, 29, an employment specialist and undeclared voter, both said they will vote for Obama. They like Obama’s support for student loans – particularly a provision giving loan forgiveness to those who work in public service. “I look at what will help me,” Richard said.
The typical New Hampshire voter is fiscally conservative and socially liberal, said Dante Scala, associate professor of political science at the University of New Hampshire. Voters are focused on economic issues including curbing the size of government, and would prefer to keep abortion and gay marriage out of public debate.
Scala said Obama will not have the same struggles for support from working class Democrats that he does in Ohio or Pennsylvania. “In New Hampshire, there are proportionally more college-educated, prosperous voters who have moved in a Democratic direction the past couple of decades,” Scala said.
He said Democrats are energized to make up for their 2010 losses. “It’s no longer the case that Democrats are sitting back fat and happy, and Republicans are on the outs,” Scala said.
At the same time, Romney, a former Massachusetts governor, fits in well with New Hampshire Republicans. Romney’s Mormon faith, which makes some evangelical voters wary, is likely irrelevant in New Hampshire, one of the least religious states in the country, Smith said. Some conservatives nationally dislike the fact that Romney rarely talks about social issues and previously supported abortion rights and gay rights (he now opposes abortion and gay marriage). Smith said New Hampshire Republicans are more pro-choice than voters as a whole nationwide, and 40 percent support keeping gay marriage legal in the state. Smith said New Hampshire Republicans are likely to be attracted to Romney's moderate reputation and focus on economic issues.
“They see Romney as one of their own, not just geographically but ideologically,” Scala said. “Romney’s in their backyard, in both senses.”