As the battle for U.S. Senate between Democrat Edward Markey and Republican Gabriel Gomez enters its final week, the race is tightening and Democrats are bringing in the big guns.
By SHIRA SCHOENBERG and ROBERT RIZZUTO
As the battle for U.S. Senate between Democrat Edward Markey and Republican Gabriel Gomez enters its final week, the race is tightening and Democrats are bringing in the big guns.
Democratic President Barack Obama, First Lady Michelle Obama, Vice President Joe Biden, former President Bill Clinton and former vice president Al Gore have all campaigned or fundraised for Markey. The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee has spent nearly $700,000 on anti-Gomez ads, complementing spending from other Democratic-leaning groups. Some national Republicans are helping Gomez, but not to the same extent.
While Markey has held a solid lead throughout the campaign, political strategists say the hubbub of activity, particularly on the Democratic side, reflects the changing dynamic of the race, in which national scandals surrounding the Obama administration threaten to trickle down to Massachusetts. It also indicates Democrats’ refusal to take any race for granted, after Republican Scott Brown’s upset victory in the 2010 U.S. Senate special election.
“Because we are in an off-year, off-cycle, off-month election that we’ve never had before, you can’t leave anything to chance,” said Democratic strategist Mary Anne Marsh, who works for the Dewey Square Group and is not involved in the Senate race. “This is Markey’s race to lose, and no one’s going to let that happen.”
Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., right, campaigns with Massachusetts Republican candidate for U.S. Senate Gabriel Gomez, center, at the Boston Police VFW Post on May 20, 2013. Aside from McCain, national Republicans have been largely absent from the race as Gomez aims to win over independents, which make up more than half of the registered voters in Massachusetts. (AP Photo/Michael Dwyer)
Two polls released last week - by WBUR and Suffolk University - pegged Markey’s lead at 7 points, with around 10 percent of voters undecided. While Markey has led consistently throughout the race, his lead has narrowed. Three independent polls from late May or early June had Markey 11 to 12 points ahead of Gomez.
“Seven points in any race is a good lead, but as was demonstrated in 2010, there’s no single digit lead that’s insurmountable,” said Steve Koczela, president of The MassINC Polling Group, which conducted the WBUR poll.
One of the biggest dangers Markey faces ironically comes from one of his allies: Obama. While the president remains popular in Massachusetts, he has seen his popularity decline because of several recent scandals. These include the Internal Revenue Service’s targeting of conservative groups; questions over the government’s handling of the attack at the U.S. consulate in Benghazi, Libya; the Justice Department’s subpoenaing of journalists’ phone records; and the leak of information about the government’s secret surveillance programs of phone and Internet records.
Paul Santaniello
Paul Santaniello, a Republican strategist and Longmeadow selectman, said the problems plaguing Obama's administration are trickling down to affect other Democrats like Markey.
"I was shocked when they had President Obama campaign for Markey, considering all of the simultaneous scandals surrounding his team in Washington," Santaniello said. "Although I imagine that visit may have shored up some of Markey's liberal base, it did nothing to bring independents into the fold and in actuality, may have done the opposite."
Santaniello said seeing Markey appear alongside Obama may have convinced a few lukewarm Democrats to support the longtime congressman, but to independents, it may have had a negative effect.
"You have people in the middle seeing Markey as an establishment politician who will go back to Washington to toe the line. To them, Gomez is a solution to the problem of establishment corruption in the capitol," Santaniello said.
David Paleologos
David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center, said the scandals might particularly energize independent voters, who were previously unconnected with the Senate race, to vote against an incumbent Democrat who has been in Washington for decades. “It’s possible that the scandals will adversely affect Ed Markey through no fault of his own,” Paleologos said.
In Massachusetts, Democrats outnumber Republicans three to one. Independents are therefore a key constituency since a Republican candidate must win independents by a large margin to take the state.
Recent polls have put Markey’s support at just under 50 percent, which Paleologos said “is a dangerous place to be” for the more well-known candidate. The pollster said Markey is likely bringing in Obama and Clinton to bolster enthusiasm among Democrats, even as he must also improve his standing among independents. “(There is) the need to generate some action in Democratic circles which to date hasn’t happened,” Paleologos said. “People haven’t been as excited about Ed Markey as about (Democratic Sen.) Elizabeth Warren.”
Political observers are also keenly aware of the 2010 special election, when Brown came from behind to beat Democrat Martha Coakley. Brown’s victory was spurred in part by the national mood, with Republicans and some independents angry over Obama’s health care reform and the continued economic downturn. In addition, state Democrats took the seat for granted and ran a lackluster campaign. Coakley held a consistent lead throughout the race, but, according to polling data aggregated by the website Real Clear Politics, Brown began outperforming Coakley around two weeks before the election.
Anthony Cignoli
"If we look at the trending from back then, it's similar to what's happening with Gomez right now,” said Anthony Cignoli, a Springfield-based political consultant with clients from both parties.
Cignoli agreed that the tightening of the race can be attributed in part to the president's problems rubbing off on the longtime congressman. "The difficulties the president is facing have no doubt led to some fatigue on the typically excited base. And to independents, an incumbent like Markey is more likely to draw that anger," Cignoli said.
Democrats dispute the notion that their get out the vote effort is anything out of the ordinary. “That’s what Democrats here do every two years,” Marsh said. “I think one of the big differences between Democrats in Massachusetts and Republicans is Democrats build grassroots organizations and have a true get out the vote program to make sure that people turn out.”
Marsh said Obama’s visit to Roxbury was meant to target Democrats, particularly black and Latino voters who were instrumental to Obama’s victories but may be less motivated in a special election. That same appearance was used to promote Markey in a 30-second TV ad released on Friday.
Clinton targeted middle class, blue collar voters, including independent voters, in central Massachusetts.
Koczela said while he is not predicting anything will change in the race, it makes sense for Democrats to take steps to prevent another last minute upset. “The Democratic Party doesn’t want to take anything for granted, I would imagine,” Koczela said. “After seeing what happened in 2010, they want to be absolutely sure they do everything they can to keep things where they are rather than taking unnecessary risks in the last couple of weeks.”
Ray LaRaja
And most analysts say it will be difficult for Gomez to make up his deficit in the final weeks, particularly with few voters remaining undecided. Ray La Raja, associate professor of political science at the University of Massachusetts at Amherst, said Gomez has some factors in his favor – young voters, who tend to vote Democratic, are out of school for the year. The Obama scandals could hurt Markey. But La Raja said Gomez needs a perfect storm of somewhat unlikely factors to pull out a win.
"There would have to be a huge drop in Democratic voters for Gomez to end up with a win," La Raja said. "And when Brown won, there was a lot of anger from independents. Now, not so much.”
With two debates behind them, Markey and Gomez will square off at their final debate on June 18 at WGBH's studios in Brighton.
The election to determine which candidate will serve out the remainder of John Kerry's term in the Senate takes place on June 25.