Obama reportedly raised $1 million within 90 minutes of announcing his support for gay marriage, but critical swing state voters remain divided on the issue.
Within 90 minutes of announcing his support for gay marriage, President Obama raised $1 million, a Democrat told the news site BuzzFeed. By the next day, Obama’s reelection campaign had released a video attacking presumptive Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney for not supporting marriage equality.
But how much Obama’s stance will help him in the November election remains an open question. Obama’s support for gay marriage could galvanize his base – including major donors. But Obama is also positioning himself in opposition to voters in several swing states, who have approved measures banning gay marriage. And social issues pale compared to fiscal issues in every poll of voter concerns.
“People who will be most exercised about this weren’t going to vote for Obama anyway,” said Jeffrey Berry, a political science professor at Tufts University. “In terms of excitement and support, it will play well among a base of the Democratic Party….(But) I don’t think it will make a huge difference.”
The Obama campaign believes the president’s support for gay marriage will help his fundraising. One in six of Obama’s top campaign “bundlers,” those who solicit large numbers of donations, are gay, according to a Washington Post analysis. Obama is traveling to the West Coast on Thursday for three high-dollar fundraisers, including one with Hollywood actor George Clooney, where his support for gay marriage is expected to be greeted with enthusiasm. He has also planned at least two fundraisers with gay rights activists in the coming weeks, Bloomberg reported. The New Hampshire Democratic Party already used Obama’s stance in a fundraising appeal emailed to supporters.
Michael Cole-Schwartz, spokesman for the Human Rights Campaign, a national gay rights organization, said Obama’s stance could make a difference in energizing the Democratic base. “It increases enthusiasm, which will lead to campaign contributions, and people will spend more time volunteering, doing the boots on the ground work that the campaign needs,” Cole-Schwartz said.
But Obama’s support for gay marriage may not translate into votes. Nationally, while polls show the level of support for gay marriage steadily increasing, the country remains divided. A poll by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, conducted April 4-15, found that 47 percent of Americans support gay marriage and 43 percent oppose it.
President Barack Obama figures to raise more campaign donations thanks to his support of gay marriage but it could cost him votes in key swing states in November.The divide already correlates with party affiliation. Another Pew Research Center poll from April found that voters who plan to vote for Obama support gay marriage, 66 percent to 25 percent. Those who oppose gay marriage plan to vote for Romney by similar margins. Like the general public, swing voters are split: 47 percent favor gay marriage, while 39 percent oppose it. Just 28 percent of voters see gay marriage as a very important issue, according to the Pew poll, with the numbers slightly higher for Republicans than for Democrats.
“It’s not viewed as a top tier voting issue,” said Carroll Doherty, associate director of the Pew Research Center. “For most people, this election will be about the economy and jobs.”
Cole-Schwartz pointed to polling data that shows that independent voters, which both candidates must attract to win the election, tend to support gay marriage.
Christian Berle, deputy executive director of the Log Cabin Republicans, a Republican gay rights group, said the president clearly recognizes a generational shift, in which younger voters, who supported Obama overwhelmingly in 2008, are more likely to support gay marriage.
But opponents of gay marriage point to the strong opposition to gay marriage in potential swing states like North Carolina, where voters this week approved a constitutional amendment defining marriage as between a man and a woman, 61 to 39 percent.
Voters in the swing states of Ohio, Virginia, Florida and Nevada have also adopted constitutional amendments barring gay marriage.
Other swing states – Iowa and New Hampshire – have gay marriage. But Kevin Smith, a Republican gubernatorial candidate in New Hampshire and the former head of a socially conservative advocacy group, said he does not think gay marriage will be a big issue in November. “I feel it’s just a distraction,” Smith said of Obama’s announcement. “They’re using the issue as a distraction to divert attention from issues people care the most about - jobs and the economy.”
C.J. Doyle, executive director of the Catholic Action League of Massachusetts, which opposes gay marriage, said social and religious conservatives are unlikely to vote for Obama anyway – particularly after the recent controversy over Obama’s mandate requiring insurers to cover contraception with no co-pay, which angered many religious leaders.
“Obama concluded he won’t get votes of social conservatives anyway…he probably is attempting to mobilize his own base,” Doyle said.