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Poll: Scott Brown-Elizabeth Warren Massachusetts Senate race a dead heat

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A new poll by the Republican-leaning Kimball Political Consulting found Brown leading Warren among likely Massachusetts voters, 46 percent to 45 percent.

Brown WarrenThese 2012 file photos show incumbent U.S. Sen. Scott Brown, R-Mass., left, and Democratic challenger Elizabeth Warren, in Boston. (AP File Photos)

A new poll finds Republican U.S. Sen. Scott Brown and Democrat Elizabeth Warren in a dead heat, with the race tightening over the last two weeks.

A poll released Monday by the Republican-leaning Kimball Political Consulting found Brown leading Warren among likely Massachusetts voters, 46 percent to 45 percent, within the 3.5 percent margin of error. That is closer than in the last Kimball poll, released Aug. 24, which showed Brown leading Warren by six points.

Since the earlier poll, both the Democrats and the Republicans have had their conventions. Warren had a prominent speaking role at the Democratic National Convention, while Brown attended the Republican convention for only one day and did not speak.

Brown had been down by four points in Western Massachusetts in August, and is now up by seven points. However, his lead decreased in the North Shore and South Shore.

In the presidential race, the poll found Democratic President Barack Obama up by 16 points over Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney in Massachusetts. In August, Obama led by 11 points.

In Western Massachusetts, 51 percent of voters supported Obama and 41 percent supported Romney. Those numbers were similar in every region except Metro Boston, where Obama led by 40 points, 68 percent to 28 percent.

The imbalance between the two races illustrates that Brown continues to benefit from voters who plan to split their ticket. The poll found that 15 percent of Brown supporters planned to also vote for Obama, while only 3 percent of Warren supporters planned to cross party lines to support Romney. Brown continues to get support from independents – holding a lead of 54 percent to 36 percent.

The poll of 756 likely Massachusetts voters was conducted Sept.7-9.

» Detailed analysis of Kimball poll [pdf].


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