The percent of registered Democrats in the state fell from 45.3 percent to 36.5 percent during the 28-year period.
At left: In 1982, 45 of every 100 Massachusetts voters were registered Democrats (blue silhouettes). At right: By 2010, 52 of every 100 voters were registered as independents, or with other parties (purple silhouettes).
BOSTON – The growth rate of independent voters slowed in Massachusetts during the past decade, but their influence over the state’s politics is likely to remain strong for many years to come, local political analysts said.
The increase in independents was 6 percentage points in the 1990s, dropping to 2 percentage points between 2000 and 2010, according to an analysis of statistics from Secretary of State William F. Galvin’s office. But long-term, the percent of the state’s 4 million voters not affiliated with a political party leapt from 40.6 percent of the total in 1982 to 51.9 percent in 2010.
Over the same 28-year period, the percent of registered Democrats in the state fell from 45.3 percent to 36.5 percent.
Republican totals also dropped from 14 percent in 1982 to 11.3 percent in 2010.
Anthony L. Cignoli, a Springfield political consultant, said independents rose in numbers largely because of the failure of the major political parties to fix the nation’s social and economic difficulties. Independents will continue to grow in influence and play a major role in deciding elections in the years ahead, he said.
Many independent voters believe that neither major political party stands for what they want and need out of government, Cignoli said. Independents are turned off by constant party bickering, especially in Washington, and disillusioned that major problems persist from Republican to Democratic presidents and from Congress to Congress, Cignoli said.
“Party faithful is a dying concept,” Cignoli said.
Democrats hold a big edge over Republicans in Massachusetts, but Democrats have learned that they can’t ignore independents in elections, Cignoli said.
Most recently, independents were a major factor in last year’s statewide elections. Gov. Deval L. Patrick, a Democrat, was re-elected with 49 percent of the total vote after he held his own or won in certain cities and suburban towns dominated by independents. Patrick appealed to independents on certain issues such as overhauling state pensions. He also emphasized job and spending cuts to balance the budget.
05.20.2010 | HOLYOKE - Political consultant Anthony L. Cignoli, at an event for candidates in the 2010 elections.
Voters in Massachusetts are notorious ticket-splitters and fiercely independent, Cignoli said. Last year, independents were key in re-electing the Democratic governor but they also pulled the lever in the voting booth for enough Republicans to more than double the party’s numbers in the state House of Representatives from 15 to 31 including the win of Nicholas A. Boldyga in a three-way contest for the Agawam-based seat in the House.
Independents elected one of their own to a major office in Hampden County. Mark G. Mastroianni, a Westfield lawyer and independent, won by a decisive victory for Hampden district attorney after running on a platform of keeping the office above the politics of both parties.
In January 2010, U.S. Sen. Scott P. Brown, a Republican, rode the independent vote to victory over Democrat Martha M. Coakley to seize the seat held by the late U.S. Sen. Edward M. Kennedy, a Democratic icon.
The state still is heavily Democratic despite Republican inroads. Brown is the only Republican in the Washington delegation. Both branches of the state Legislature have large Democratic majorities to go along with the Democratic governor. Of the 27-person delegation for Western Massachusetts on Beacon Hill, only four are Republicans.
Political parties can wield tremendous influence over elections with money and partisan rules. An independent candidate – former state Treasurer Timothy P. Cahill – finished a distant third in last year’s governor’s race after the Republican Governors Association in Washington financed a series of television and radio ads to discredit him. Cahill also had no convention or primary to help him.
Independent voters enjoyed their greatest growth in the 1990’s in Massachusetts. Their made a huge impact when they helped elect a succession of Republican governors – William F. Weld, A. Paul Cellucci and W. Mitt Romney – who pledged to lower taxes, reduce crime and overhaul welfare and other programs.
Independents constituted 43.7 percent of the state’s voters in 1990 and hit 49.96 percent in 2000, a rise of 6 percentage points.
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During the past decade, growth slowed considerably. Independents didn’t officially cross the 50 percent barrier until 2002 and their share increased by only 2 percentage points since 2000, according to voter registration statistics.
Democratic numbers plunged in the 1990’s but stabilized the past decade. Democrats made up 36.3 percent of the state’s voters in 2000, virtually the same as today.
The percentage of Republican voters remained basically flat during the 1990’s in Massachusetts. Amid criticism that Republican governors were more interested in their own personal political fortunes that building the party, Republican registration then dipped by 2 percentage points from 13.6 percent in 2000 to today’s 11.3 percent.
Barbara C. Anderson , executive director of Citizens for Limited Taxation, said the increase in independent voters reached a maximum, leaving mostly traditionalists in the parties. People remained Democrats or Republicans because their parents or grandparents were party members, she said.
Anderson said independents are likely to continue to gain strength as generations pass.
She said that politicians must pay attention to voters who aren’t enrolled in a party.
“The great thing about independents is that parties can’t count on them,” said Anderson, who is an independent voter. “They don’t know what they are going to do.”
Cignoli agreed.
“Though persuaded more so by their Democratic-leaning fellow voters, they are not right or left,” Cignoli said. “They are ‘Massachusetts middle.’ They are open to arguments and campaign messages from either party. They want Democrats to really fight for their vote and Republicans to surprise them.”
The growth of unaffiliated voters can be seen in many local communities since 1982, the analysis showed. The percentage of independents in Agawam grew from 49 percent in 1982 to 54 percent last year; Chicopee, 27 percent to 47 percent; Holyoke, 35 percent to 45 percent; Longmeadow, 34 percent to 45 percent; Ludlow, 16 percent to 45 percent; Palmer, 43 percent to 57 percent; Westfield grew from 39 percent to 50 percent; West Springfield, 44 percent to 53 percent; and Wilbraham, 43 to 49 percent.
Springfield’s numbers of unenrolled rose from 30 percent to 39 percent.
Timothy L. Vercellotti, associate professor of political science and director of the polling institute at Western New England College in Springfield, said he sees a continued growth in independent voters in the years to come.
“We’re going to continue to see that large block of unenrolled voters,” Vercellotti said. “People don’t want to be part of large institutions anymore.”
Assistant online editor Greg Saulmon contributed data analysis to this report.