The poll of registered voters revealed that Brown remains popular in the Bay State, including with independent voters.
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Reporter's note: This story is the first in a series based on information developed from polls conducted by Western New England University in a partnership with The Republican and MassLive.com. We will cover the presidential race data on Monday followed by traits framing the Senate candidates on Tuesday.
Republican U.S. Sen. Scott Brown is holding a lead over Democratic rival Elizabeth Warren in the latest poll by Western New England University in a partnership with The republican and MassLive.com. (AP photos)
SPRINGFIELD – In the U.S. Senate race in Massachusetts, Republican Sen. Scott Brown is leading chief Democratic rival Elizabeth Warren by a margin of eight percentage points according to the first poll conducted by Western New England University's Polling Institute for The Republican, MassLive.com and El Pueblo Latino this election season.
The statewide survey of 527 registered voters was conducted between Feb 23 and March 1, and bears a 4.3 percent margin of error.
The poll revealed that Brown remains popular in the Bay State, with 49 percent of those surveyed saying they would vote for him if the election was held today. Warren, a consumer advocate and Harvard Law School professor vying for the Democratic nomination to take on Brown in November's general election, pulled 41 percent of the projected vote.
Since a late fall poll conducted by the university, Brown saw his overall support climb two points while Warren's dropped one point.
When broken down by demographics, the numbers tell an even more intriguing tale.
Brown's support, classified by party identification, shows that while 94 percent of Republicans polled said Brown is the ideal candidate for the job, 22 percent of Democrats and 58 percent of independents also agreed.
Warren drew support form 70 percent of Democrats polled as well as 29 percent of Independents and four percent of Republicans.
This bar graph shows the percent of poll participants that have a favorable opinion of U.S. Senate candidates Scott Brown and Elizabeth Warren. (Mandy Hofmockel/MassLive.com)
“Warren needs to shore up her base of support among Democrats and make progress with independent voters if she is to close the gap with Brown,” said Tim Vercellotti, associate professor of political science and director of the Polling Institute at Western New England University. “As it stands now, Brown is in a strong position to win re-election.”
Among those polled who identify themselves as independents, the reasons for supporting a candidate varied.
Tim Taylor, a Pittsfield resident who is supporting Brown in the race, said the senator's independent image helped sway his decision.
"I feel like Scott Brown isn't afraid to cross the party line and do what he feels is the right thing to do," Taylor said. "I know that has made him somewhat unpopular with Republicans in Washington, but I give him a lot of credit for that."
David Fisher, a Stoughton resident supporting Warren at this point in the race, said her experience holding Wall Street firms accountable and her part organizing the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau resonates with him.
Methodology of the Western New England University poll
The Western New England University Polling Institute conducted telephone interviews with 576 adults ages 18 and older drawn from across Massachusetts using random-digit-dialing Feb. 23 through March 1, 2012. The sample yielded 527 adults who said they are registered to vote in Massachusetts. Unless otherwise noted, the figures in this release are based on the statewide sample of registered voters.
The Polling Institute dialed household telephone numbers, known as “landline numbers,” and cell phone numbers for the survey. In order to draw a representative sample from the landline numbers, interviewers first asked for the youngest male age 18 or older who was home at the time of the call, and if no adult male was present, the youngest female age 18 or older who was at home at the time of the call. Interviewers dialing cell phone numbers interviewed the respondent who answered the cell phone after confirming three things: (1) that the respondent was in a safe setting to complete the survey; (2) that the respondent was an adult age 18 or older; and (3) that the respondent was a resident of Massachusetts. The landline and cell phone data were combined and weighted to reflect the adult population of Massachusetts by gender, race, age, and county of residence using U.S. Census estimates for Massachusetts. Complete results of the poll are available online at www.wne.edu/news.
All surveys are subject to sampling error, which is the expected probable difference between interviewing everyone in a population versus a scientific sampling drawn from that population. The sampling error for a sample of 527 registered voters is +/- 4.3 percent, at a 95 percent confidence interval. Thus if 55 percent of registered voters said they approved of the job that Scott Brown is doing as U.S. Senator, one would be 95 percent sure that the true figure would be between 50.7 percent and 59.3 percent (55 percent +/- 4.3 percent) had all Massachusetts voters been interviewed, rather than just a sample. Sampling error increases as the sample size decreases, so statements based on various population subgroups are subject to more error than are statements based on the total sample. Sampling error does not take into account other sources of variation inherent in public opinion studies, such as non-response, question wording, or context effects.
Established in 2005, the Western New England University Polling Institute conducts research on issues of importance to Massachusetts and the region. The Institute provides the University’s faculty and students with valuable opportunities to participate in public opinion research. Additional information about the Polling Institute is available at www1.wne.edu/pollinginst.
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"I don't feel like Wall Street has her in their pocket," said Fisher, who identified himself as a retired investor. "That's more than I can say for a lot of politicians. Scott Brown is a likeable guy in an impossible situation. He is in the wrong party. There are no moderate Republicans left just like there are no conservative Democrats."
As far as the genders go, Brown remains popular with women despite his recent stance on a health care bill that would have allowed any business or insurer to deny coverage of any procedure or prescription they find in contradiction to their moral or religious convictions. Critics charged that it would have left millions of women without affordable access to contraception. The Blunt Amendment, as it is known, was killed by a 51-48 vote in the Senate last week.
Female voters approved of the job that Brown is doing as senator by a margin of 50 percent to 28 percent in the latest survey, compared to a 47 percent job approval rating and a 31 percent disapproval rating among women in the fall survey.
Vercellotti noted that the differences are within the margin of error for the latest survey.
Cheryl Johnson of East Bridgewater said she is supporting Warren in part because she is a woman.
"I like what she has to say and the way she comes across," Johnson said. "And I'm not happy with the other candidate and just about everything he's said. More and more it feels like no one is going to step up and help the middle class but I'd like to see her get a shot. I think it's time to send another woman to Washington to clean things up."
Alice Ovitt of Sheffield, said that she is supporting Brown in part because she knows more about him than Warren.
"I don't know much about Elizabeth Warren and Scott Brown isn't bad on the eyes," Ovitt said. "If I had some way to know she wouldn't go to Washington and end up like the rest of them, I might give her my vote. But people can promise anything and make you believe them but they can't make changes alone. They need to have someone on their side. He (Brown) has already been working down there and knows how the system works."
In a breakdown of the state's various regions, Warren led in Boston and its suburbs with 48 percent support compared to Brown's 46 percent. In Western and Central Massachusetts, Brown led Warren 44-42 percent and 46-40 percent, respectively.
In the north and south shores, which were considered one category in the survey, Brown's lead was greater – he pulled support from 54 percent of those surveyed compared to Warren with 33 percent.
And on the age-scale, in a somewhat surprising twist, Brown pulled 58 percent of voters ages 18-29 compared to Warren's 29 percent. Fifty percent of voters ages 30-49 are supporting Brown while 38 percent are supporting Warren.
But the consumer advocate remains popular with those ages 50-64, as 52 percent are pushing for Warren compared to Brown's 40 percent.
Of the 65-and-older category, 49 percent said they are supporting Brown while 42 percent are supporting Warren.
Compared to the university's late fall poll, Brown's overall favorability rating fell from 52 to 47 percent. His favorability among Republicans dipped five points to 85 percent, and his Independent support also dropped from 61-58 percent.
But among those who identify as Democrats, Brown's favorability climbed from 23 to 27 percent.
Warren's overall favorability and unfavorability each climbed four points to 37 and 20 percent of those surveyed, mirroring the trend of Democratic opinions of her. Her favorability among Republicans climbed one point to 11 percent while it dropped five points among Independents to 28 percent.
Warren has become better known among voters since the fall survey, when nearly half of registered voters said they hadn’t heard of her or did not have an opinion of her. About one-third of voters offered those responses in the latest survey.
Twenty-one percent of voters said they had not heard of Brown, or did not have an opinion of him, up two percentage points from the fall survey.
“Warren, and to a lesser extent Brown, still have opportunities to shape their images with a segment of the electorate,” Vercellotti said. “But each candidate’s opponent also has that opportunity.”
Brown, who has had two years to prove himself to the people of Massachusetts since winning the special election following the death of longtime Democratic Sen. Edward Kennedy, holds a 54 percent job approval rating, according to the latest poll.
His approval among Republicans and independents is steady at 88 and 58 percent with 39 percent of Democrats surveyed agreeing that they approve of his job performance.
And although many of the voters surveyed said they have made up their minds, there is a significant number of them still on the fence.
"In terms of likelihood that voters may change their minds, almost one-third of the sample says they might change their minds between now and Election Day," Vercelotti said. "So the race is still very fluid at this early stage. When breaking down the numbers by candidate, Warren's support seems a bit more solid than Brown's, with 72 percent saying very sure compared to 66 percent for Brown. It is worth noting that 40 percent of independents still might change their minds, so much can happen over the next several months and Warren still has opportunities to close the gap."
Among those who could still change their mind before election day is Fisher, who said that although he is supporting Warren now, he could still be swayed.
"I think we're lucky to have these candidates to choose from. When I look at some of the other candidates at the national level and in other states Senate races, it makes my skin crawl," Fisher said. "Warren and Brown have things in common but they are different. I think professor Warren can bring truth to power. But it's still early in this race and a lot can and probably will happen. I'm leaning toward Warren but I'm an educated person and open to a good argument."