On every positive trait surveyed in a new poll released by The Republican/MassLive.com, Markey came out ahead of Gomez - a bad sign for Gomez heading into Tuesday's election.
In a U.S. Senate race where questions of experience have been central to both candidates’ campaigns, Massachusetts voters overwhelmingly believe that Democratic U.S. Rep. Edward Markey, more than Republican private equity investor Gabriel Gomez, has the experience to effectively represent Massachusetts in Washington, a new poll found.
The poll, conducted by the Western New England University Polling Institute and released Sunday night by The Republican/MassLive.com in partnership with CBS 3 Springfield, also found that voters think Markey is better able to work with senators from both parties and has the best plan to reform gun laws. In fact, on every trait polled, Markey came out ahead of Gomez.
This is not a good sign for Gomez as voters prepare to head to polls in Tuesday’s special election. Gomez was behind by eight points in a The Republican/MassLive.com poll released Saturday. The latest poll indicates that even in areas where Gomez has focused his campaign – his bipartisanship, his character, his ability to create jobs and reform the tax code – he still lags behind Markey.
“The messages that (Gomez) has tried to get across to the voters in this campaign, they just don’t seem to be sinking in,” said Tim Vercellotti, director of the Polling Institute at Western New England University and a professor of political science.
Much of the race has focused on the candidates’ Washington experience, or lack thereof. Markey has been in Congress since 1976 and has stressed his legislative record and ability to push policies that help Massachusetts. Gomez, who has no political experience, has criticized Markey as an ineffective Washington insider, and has played up his own status as a fresh face, not a career politician.
But Gomez’s message apparently has not resonated. On the question of who had the experience to effectively represent Massachusetts in Washington, 55 percent of likely voters said Markey while only 22 percent named Gomez. Democrats and independents generally preferred Markey on experience, while Republicans mostly preferred Gomez.
Alan Emmet, 85, a writer from Westford and a Democrat, said she thinks Markey would be more respected as a U.S. Senator because of his experience, and therefore better able to work across the aisle. “I think Markey knows what’s going on,” Emmet said. “I don’t think Gomez knows what he’s getting into. He doesn’t have the experience or the knowledge.”
Markey also held a nine-point lead, 41 percent to 32 percent, on the question of who “can work with senators from both parties to solve problems” – even though a core tenet of Gomez’s campaign has been that he can break through the gridlock in Washington and work across the aisle. Markey led among Democrats and women on this question; Gomez led among Republicans, independents and men.
Alek Diaz, 67, a Republican retiree from Longmeadow who supports Gomez, said he would like to replace the entire Congress.”The underlying atmosphere that prevails in Washington D.C. requires fresh, new blood,” Diaz said. “Someone willing to listen, initiate action, and if needed, to compromise. We’ve seen none of it…I don’t think Markey’s done anything that merits reelection.”
Another area where Markey had a large advantage was on gun control, where 47 percent of voters thought Markey had the best ideas to reform gun laws and 26 percent said the same of Gomez. Markey even led among men and independent voters on this question – key parts of Gomez’s base. Markey, who frequently talks about gun control on the campaign trail, supports banning assault weapons and high capacity magazines. Gomez opposes those bans, though he has broken with his party to support expanded background checks for gun buyers.
Political observers have compared Gomez to Republican Scott Brown, who won a 2010 special election to become Massachusetts’ junior senator, but lost his seat to Democrat Elizabeth Warren in 2012. But the poll shows that in key areas, voters see Gomez less favorably than Brown. A poll conducted by Western New England University for The Republican/MassLive.com in September 2012 found that on the question of experience, Brown led Warren by 15 points. On working with senators from both parties, Brown led Warren by 21 points.
Vercellotti said one difference between Gomez and Brown is that voters were able to look at Brown’s record during his nearly three years in the Senate, and Brown did side with Democrats on a few key votes. Gomez is not nearly as well-known as Brown, so voters have a harder time judging his ideology. “For Gabriel Gomez, it’s all theoretical at this point,” Vercellotti said. “So that makes it harder for him to convince voters he’ll vote in a way that makes sense for Massachusetts as opposed to along party lines.”
Markey had a nine-point lead, 43 percent to 34 percent, on the question of who “cares more about people like you.” Vercellotti said Democrats typically rank higher on this question.
With the economy and jobs continuing to be a top issue for voters, Markey led Gomez, 37 percent to 30 percent, on the question of who has the best ideas for creating jobs in Massachusetts.
The candidates were closer on several issues Gomez has focused on during his campaign. Gomez has stressed his credentials as a former Navy SEAL, and has said repeatedly that he will tell voters the truth. On the question of which candidate is honest and trustworthy, Markey led Gomez by just three points, 35 percent to 32 percent.
Gomez has talked about the need to reform the tax code, generally by lowering tax rates and eliminating special interest tax breaks. Markey led by just two points, 34 percent to 32 percent, on the question of who has the best ideas to reform the federal tax code. At least 20 percent of voters did not know enough to have a preference on tax policy, jobs or gun control.
Francis Lyons, 75, a retired engineering manager and independent voter from Sudbury, said he agrees more with Markey on issues like gun control. He does not know what Gomez will be able to do in Congress. But, he said, he plans to vote for Gomez. “I don’t think Markey’s done much,” Lyons said. “He’s a rubber stamp for (Democratic president Barack) Obama.”
Cynthia Carson, a retired nurse and independent from Tewksbury, said she is split on economic and defense issues. She was swayed toward Markey because Gomez is pro-life and Markey seems to care more about women’s health. “I wish I could get them to sit down and talk to each other,” she said.
On every question, Gomez led among Republicans while Markey led among Democrats.
Although Gomez has stressed his breaks with the Republican Party on issues such as gay marriage and immigration reform, he is still perceived as conservative. The poll found that more than half of likely voters (51 percent) consider Gomez somewhat or very conservative. Only 27 percent see Gomez as moderate or liberal. In contrast, when Brown ran as a moderate Republican, 49 percent ranked him as somewhat or very conservative while 38 percent said he was moderate or liberal.
Vercellotti said that is not a good sign for Gomez. “For Gabriel Gomez and any Republican running statewide in Massachusetts, you’ve got to bring home that image, the idea that you’re moderate and will vote against your party leadership sometimes,” Vercellotti said. “Otherwise, it’s a tough sell in Massachusetts.”
Markey, who almost always votes with Democrats in Congress, is seen as somewhat or very liberal by 62 percent of likely voters and moderate or conservative by just 18 percent. Warren, before her 2012 victory, was seen as liberal by 65 percent of likely voters and as moderate or conservative by 17 percent.
The poll was conducted June 16-20. The sample of 566 likely voters has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.1 percentage points.